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07/23/2010 - (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The Washington Nationals hope to build off a very encouraging showing in their most recent series when the club travels to Miller Park tonight to start up a three-game set with the Milwaukee Brewers.
Washington enters this evening's tilt off back-to-back victories on the road over National League Central contender Cincinnati. After posting an 8-5 victory behind rookie Stephen Strasburg on Wednesday, the Nationals received an even better performance out of veteran Livan Hernandez to hand the Reds a 7-1 defeat in yesterday's finale of a four-game series.
Hernandez (7-6) went the distance on a seven hitter and did not walk a batter while striking out five to stop a two-start losing streak. The 35-year-old notched his first victory since June 21.
Adam Dunn helped Hernandez's cause by belting a two-run homer and Roger Bernadina added a solo shot for the Nationals, who had lost four of the first five tests of their current 10-game road trip before Wednesday's verdict. Nyjer Morgan and Adam Kennedy each contributed two hits and an RBI to yesterday's result.
"We needed to put a couple together, and especially against a ballclub as good as Cincinnati," said Nationals manager Jim Riggleman. "We needed to win a couple. Not win a game and take a step back. We needed to show ourselves that yeah, you know, we can play with these other teams and put a few together and not win sporadically, but win more consistently."
Craig Stammen will try to give the Nationals another strong start when he takes the ball for tonight's opener. The right-hander has gone 0-2 over his last two mound trips, but did pitch very well in a hard-luck loss at Florida this past Sunday.
Stammen held the Marlins to a run on six hits and struck out six batters over six innings that day, but didn't get any support in a 1-0 setback. He's had trouble breaking into the win column all throughout this season, having notched just two victories in 16 starts in 2010.
The 26-year-old is 1-0 in two previous meetings with the Brewers, both of which took place last season, but was tagged for five runs and nine hits in just 4 2/3 innings in a no-decision at Miller Park on July 27, 2009.
Milwaukee returns home after going 4-4 on an eight-game road trip through Atlanta and Pittsburgh and ended the trek on a good note, coming up with a 3-2 triumph over the Pirates. Yovani Gallardo, making his first start since July 4, tossed six scoreless innings to lead the way.
Gallardo yielded five hits and walked just one while striking out five in improving his season record to 9-4. The All-Star right-hander had been sidelined for the past few weeks with a right oblique strain.
"[Thursday] I threw the ball pretty well," Gallardo said. "I just tried to stay in that rhythm. It's been a couple of weeks."
Rickie Weeks went 2-for-4 with a two-run homer and Prince Fielder added a solo blast, his 24th of the season, to help the Brewers avenge two straight losses to the Pirates on Tuesday and Wednesday.
Chris Narveson will try to make it two in a row for Milwaukee this evening, and the left-hander also seeks to follow up a solid last start when he toes the rubber in the opener. The 28-year-old held Atlanta to a pair of runs on six hits over six innings this past Saturday to gain the win in the Brewers' 6-3 verdict.
Narveson, who had been tagged for 10 runs (nine earned) and served up three homers in only 3 1/3 innings in his final first-half start, a home setback to San Francisco on July 7, is now 8-6 with a 5.83 ERA in 15 starts and nine relief appearances this year. He's had trouble pitching at Miller Park, though, having compiled a 6.12 ERA in 11 appearances (seven starts).
This will be Narveson's first career encounter with the Nationals in a starting role, but he did earn a win over Washington with 2 2/3 scoreless innings of relief last August at Nationals Park.
The Nationals took two of three from the Brewers at home from April 16-18, but have lost in nine of their last 11 visits to Miller Park.
<< Duensing set for first start of season as Twins battle Orioles
(Sportsbook Betting Lines) -- Brian Duensing will have a tough act to follow when the
Minnesota Twins pitcher makes his first start of the season in tonight's clash
with the Baltimore Orioles from Camden Yards.
Minnesota took the opener of this four-g
<< Braves kick off road swing in Florida
(Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The Atlanta Braves bring the National League's best record
into Florida this evening when they kick off their nine-game road trip with
the first of three games against the Marlins at Sun Life Stadium.
Atlanta just too
<< NL West-leading Padres resume trip at Pittsburgh
(Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The San Diego Padres have had a rough go of it lately on
the road. A trip to Pittsburgh, though, could be just what they need, as the
Padres open a three-game series against the Pirates tonight at PNC Park.
The Padres, who
<< Cardinals go with winless starter Suppan in Chicago
(Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Jeff Suppan takes another crack at his first win of the
season this afternoon when the St. Louis Cardinals open a three-game series
with the Chicago Cubs at Wrigley Field.
Suppan has gone 0-3 with a 4.20 earned
Posey and the Giants play second of four with Diamondbacks >>
(Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Trading catcher Bengie Molina to the Texas Rangers could be
the best move the San Francisco Giants make all season. Buster Posey is
certainly on board with the decision and has been proving it ever since.
Posey and the Gia
Beckett returns for BoSox in Seattle >>
(Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The Boston Red Sox could use a boost on their current road
trip and will get just that tonight when the ballclub is expected to activate
ace Josh Beckett from the disabled list.
Beckett hasn't pitched since May 18 at Yanke
Phils start four-game set at home against Rockies >>
(Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The Philadelphia Phillies seemed confident with Roy
Halladay on the mound earlier this season. Lately they've been fortunate to
get a win when the former American League Cy Young Award honoree starts.
Halladay will get the
A-Rod goes for 600th homer as Yankees continue set with Royals >>
(Sportsbook Betting Lines) -- Alex Rodriguez will be attempting to achieve another
milestone in his illustrious career when the New York Yankees superstar takes
the field against the visiting Kansas City Royals this evening.
After homering in New York
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There is little doubt that the NFL is where the sportsbooks see the most action and also make the most loot. The NFL possesses betting friendly attributes that are unlike any of the other major sports. First off, there are relatively few teams to keep track of in comparison to college football betting or college basketball. And second, these teams play only once a week which makes staying on top of the results much easier than it is in the daily leagues such as the NBA, NHL, and MLB.
These dynamics, along with the sheer excitement of watching and wagering on football, brings more square action to the table than any of the other sports. Almost every Tom, Dick and Harry in America is an NFL expert in their own mind and that is precisely what the oddsmakers prey upon.
Understanding who bets the games is just as important as understanding which teams are playing the games. The market at times will dictate price, which in the betting world means the oddsmakers cater to the public rather than reality.
Knowing the market inside and out is the basis of our NFL handicapping model. That is, our approach to NFL handicapping is of the contrarian or value seeking variety. We will at times place a higher premium on public sentiment than on the fundamentals. This strategy dictates playing dogs and/or lesser competent teams, or teams the public wants nothing to do with. Or better yet, fading the teams the oddsmakers want you to bet on.
Along these same lines, we carry a similar notion that the first week of the NFL season presents one of the ripest opportunities for the astute gambler. This conflicts with conventional wisdom and/or handicapping lore, as most would say it is better to watch a few games and assess each team before jumping in with both feet. That’s all fine and dandy, but there are some interesting trends to exploit in Week 1 and we’d be remiss to ignore them. Let us quickly explain.
Gone are the days of dynasties, where the same core players stay intact and dominate the league year after year. Free agency and player movements can completely transform teams from one season to the next. In today’s parity-driven NFL, poor teams typically don’t stay poor for all that long and excellent teams must constantly reinvent themselves to stay on top.
The temptation might be to assume prior year results are the best indicator of who is going to cover in Week 1. To Joe Public, playoff teams from the prior season, home teams, favorites, and so one, look even more enticing than usual since there is no current season performance to judge them against. But the question begs: are the oddsmakers setting a trap?
To find the answer, we culled five years worth of Week 1 NFL data. As always, all of our analysis is done from an ATS perspective. The purpose here is to share the most important angles we unearthed and try to explain the logic behind them. So strap on your helmet, throw on your shoulder pads, and follow our lead as we expose some rare holes in the oddsmakers’ line of defense.
Home vs. Away Teams
Over the past five seasons, NFL home teams in Week 1 are just 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent). This of course implies that roadies are a 58 percent winning proposition during this time. The public at large has a tendency to overvalue home teams and this is especially true in Week 1 when there is no current season data to make predictions from. Consequently, the oddsmakers almost surely shade the home teams, by and large making road teams the choice for the value player.
Conclusion: Look long and hard at road teams first when handicapping the opening week.
Price ranges
Favorites are just 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent) in the opening week over the past five NFL seasons (Coincidentally, home teams hold the same ATS record as noted above). This means that underdogs bark at a 58 percent clip. Mid-range favorites performed the worst among our specified price ranges. In particular, favorites priced between –3 1/2 and –6 1/2 are only 8-15 ATS (35 percent) during this time.
The same basic pattern holds true when looking at home favorites (road favorites gravitate towards a 50 percent mean). Home favorites indeed are just 21-32-3 ATS (40 percent) in the first week of NFL action since 1999. Again, mid-range favorites are similarly the poorest performers when we look at home teams. Consider that home teams priced between –3 1/2 and –6 1/2 have stumbled to a 6-13 ATS (32 percent) mark in Week 1 games the past five seasons.
Conclusion: Like home teams, favorites and particularly mid-range favorites are generally overvalued in Week 1.
Playoff teams
It might surprise you to learn that playoff teams from the prior year versus non-playoff teams from the prior year are a mere 16-23-3 (41 percent) ATS in NFL Week 1 games over the past five seasons. Home teams which made the playoffs versus teams which did not make the playoffs from the prior season drop to a meager 7-14-1 ATS (33 percent) during this time.
Why are playoff teams, and in particular those at home, such bad bets the past five openers? Just as the case with home teams and with favorites, oddsmakers intentionally overprice playoff teams in the opening week to compensate for the public’s propensity to over bet them.
This theory holds true just looking at straight-up records from the past season as well. That is, home teams with winning records from the prior season vs. road teams with losing records from the prior season are just 8-13 ATS in Week 1 NFL games since 1999.
Conclusion: Playoff teams from the prior year and in particular, home playoff teams, are overvalued in Week 1 NFL games.
Scoring defense and scoring offense
Do good defenses and for that matter good offenses from the prior season fare better against the number the following year in Week 1 games? Well, sort of. Generally speaking, teams with a solid offense or defense from the prior season tend to do well in the opening week so long as they are on the road. As a host, however, the best offenses and best defenses from the prior year tend to be overvalued in Week 1.
Consider that the top five scoring defenses (i.e. points allowed) from the prior season are a nice 8-4 ATS (66 percent) on the road in NFL openers the past five seasons. Meanwhile, the top five scoring defenses from the prior season are just 3-8-2 ATS (27 percent) as a host in Week 1 during the same time period.
There is no discernable advantage or disadvantage for teams with a top five scoring offense (i.e. points scored) in Week 1 games. However, when we look at scoring offenses from the bottom up (isolating the five worst offenses from the prior season), the results are rather interesting. In particular, teams ranked in the bottom five in scoring offense from the prior season are 9-4-1 ATS (69 percent) when on the road in Week 1.
The logic is simply that the public perception is a poor scoring offensive unit from the year prior will have little chance of winning on the road in Week 1. In turn, the oddsmakers compensate for this perception and these poor offensive teams from the year prior carry extra line value on the Week 1 trail.
Conclusion: Teams with top-ranked defenses from the previous season are good bets when playing on the road, but poor bets when playing at home. Also, teams ranked among the bottom five in scoring offense from the prior season are generally a good value in their Week 1 openers, provided they are playing on the road.
Scoring margin
An exceedingly straightforward way of measuring scoring offense and scoring defense together as a whole is to look at a team's “margin." Margin is simply scoring offense minus scoring defense, which is a fairly clear-cut measure of how a team does on both sides of the ball. Typically, the higher the margin, the better the team.
In this regard, it might seem counterintuitive that teams carrying the higher margin from the prior season in week one matchups are merely 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent). Furthermore, road teams with the higher margin are 14-20-6 ATS (41 percent), while home teams with the higher margin are 17-22-1 ATS (44 percent). Once again, these results line up with the theory that better teams from the prior year are overvalued come opening day of the following season.
Conclusion: “Better” teams, which often boast a higher margin than their opponent, are overvalued the following season in NFL openers.
In sum
Oddsmakers cater NFL betting lines to match public perception and also to bait the public into poor bets. The temptation to use the prior year’s success as a buy sign for how a team will perform against the spread in Week 1 of the following season is an enormous trap.
The fact is, isolating road teams, road dogs, non-playoff teams vs. playoff teams, teams with a losing record or low margin vs. playoff teams or ones with a high margin from the previous year is where the line value resides. Quite simply, taking the road less traveled is your surest path to NFL betting profits.
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