Pelfrey hopes for a rebound in LA

Baseball Betting Lines

07/24/2010 - (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Mike Pelfrey hopes to bounce back from the shortest start of his career this evening when the New York Mets continue their four-game set with the Los Angeles Dodgers at Dodger Stadium.

Pelfrey could not make it out of the second inning on Monday in Arizona, as the Diamondbacks hammered him for six runs and seven hits in 1 1/3 frames.

It was the third straight loss for Pelfrey, who fell to 10-5 on the year. He is now winless in his last four starts, and has failed to get out of the fifth inning in each of those outings, while surrendering 28 runs in 14 2/3 innings of those starts to balloon his earned run average from 2.71 to 4.01.

"I'm going through one of the worst stretches of my life. I don't know if I've ever had four starts in a row without getting out of the fifth inning," Pelfrey said. "I think tonight was definitely the shortest outing of my life, it's frustrating, I think I've gotten away from establishing the fastball, seems like I'm trying to establish three, four pitches at once, early in the game and that's not who I am. So I need to get back to using the fastball, establishing that to make the other pitches better."

It won't get any easier for the 26-year-old right-hander tonight, as he is 0-1 with a 5.40 ERA in two starts against the Dodgers, who have hit him at a .341 clip.

New York managed a rare road win on Friday, as Johan Santana silenced the Dodgers for seven innings, and the Mets' offense awoke from a two-week slumber in a 6-1 victory at Chavez Ravine.

The Mets were held to four runs or less in each of their previous 13 games, but a balanced attack with the bats and Santana's arm helped the club to their second win in nine games since the All-Star break.

Santana (8-5) surrendered just one run on five hits and a walk to go with four strikeouts in the win. The left-hander has gone at least seven frames and given up one run or less in his last five outings.

Jason Bay went 2-for-4 with three RBI, Ike Davis hit a solo home run, and Jose Reyes doubled, walked, stole a base and scored two runs for the victors.

Vicente Padilla (4-3) took the look despite allowing a mere two runs -- one earned -- on six hits in seven innings for Los Angeles, which won the opener of this four-game series, 2-0, on Thursday.

"Padilla pitched sensational. We just couldn't get any offense going. Santana works fast and you don't get many opportunities against him," Dodgers manager Joe Torre said. "We've been struggling offensively."

Los Angeles, meanwhile, will pin its hopes tonight on righty Carlos Monasterios, who will be making his seventh start of the season. Monasterios has been tremendous coming out of the bullpen for the Dodgers, pitching to a 1.75 ERA in 14 appearances. However, he has struggled in his six starts, going 2-2 with a 5.40 ERA.

Monasterios will be making his first-ever start against the Mets, but he did throw two scoreless innings of relief against them back on April 27.

The Mets have lost 10 of 15 games in Hollywood since the 2007 season.

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MySportsbook.com favors Bears, Bengals, Chargers and Colts to remain perfect

LAS VEGAS , Sept. 28 - Two big match-ups of undefeated teams have fans salivating at the Week Four schedule in the NFL. The Chicago Bears stifling defense looks to provide a less than hospitable welcome to the Seattle Seahawks on Sunday night in a battle of two 3-0 teams in the NFC conference. In the AFC, the San Diego Chargers (2-0) head to Maryland to face the surprising Baltimore Ravens (3-0) as both try to keep pace atop the conference standings. Betting Lines makers at MySportsbook.com, online sportsbook and casino, have set the Bears as 3.5 point favorites while the Chargers are a 2.5 point bet.

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Six teams enter the week still looking for their first win, with a seventh, Tampa Bay, on a bye week. The prospect of dropping another game would not bode well for a potential playoff run. Since 1990, just three teams -- the 1992 Chargers, 1995 Detroit Lions and 1998 Buffalo Bills -- have overcome losing their first three games of the season to earn a postseason berth. And only the Chargers managed to accomplish the feat after starting 0-4.

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Sportsbook Betting Lines

Who Makes the Sportsbook Betting Lines?

Las Vegas Sports Consultants (LVSC) is the world’s premier oddsmaking company and the most respected authority on making the lines. Mike Seba is a Senior Oddsmaker at LVSC and has been making lines for the last six years. In our extended interview, Seba explained that there are 4-5 oddsmakers assigned to make lines for each of the major sports (pro & college football and basketball; MLB, NHL, boxing, golf). Each of these oddsmakers bring unique opinions, strengths and weaknesses to the process. Oddsmakers at LVSC are professional sports junkies who love what they do and would probably do it for nothing if you asked them, but they do get paid for it. By necessity their approach is very research-oriented and concise, since with millions of dollars at risk there is little margin for error.

“You either have a passion for it or you don’t,” Seba said.

“The #1 thing for us is to make a line for each game that creates good two-way action. We do this by drawing from past experiences and applying them to current situations. People think it’s much more complicated, but it’s not. “

What are the Football Betting Lines Trying to Accomplish?

There is a common misconception that point spreads represent the oddsmakers’ prediction of how many points the favorite will win by. That is not the case at all – their intent is NOT to evenly split the ATS result between the teams; rather, their goal is to attract equal betting action on both sides. Stated another way, they want to create a line that half the people find appealing to bet one way while the other half find it appealing to bet the other way (known as ‘dividing the action’).

Divided action means the sportsbook is guaranteed a profit on the game because of the fee charged to the bettor (called juice or vig – typically $11 bet to win $10).

How the Opening Line Is Made

The opening line is the first line created by the oddsmakers, which is then sent out to sportsbooks. Of course there is an entire method to the madness on how the opening line is created. Seba explained that it all starts with each oddsmaker creating a line on each game based upon their own personal approach. This usually includes having up-to-date power ratings on each team.

Power ratings are the oddsmaker’s value of each team and are used as a guide to calculate a "preliminary" pointspread on an upcoming game. The power ratings are adjusted after each game a team plays. Examples of non-game factors that would require an adjustment to a team's power rating are key player injuries and player trades.

Once a game’s power rating based pointspread is determined, the oddsmaker will make adjustments to that line after considering each team's most recent games played and previous games played against that opponent. Also, adjustments are made after reading each team’s local newspapers to get a sense of what the coaches & players are thinking going into the game.

Since the oddsmaker’s ultimate goal is equally dividing the sports betting action, public perception and sportsbook betting patterns must be taken into account. For example, the public might have heavy betting interest week after week on a popular college football betting team such as USC. If an oddsmaker comes up with a preliminary line of USC -7, then an adjustment up to -7.5 or -8 would be made in response to the public’s expected USC bias.

The last step in the line-making process for each oddsmaker is taking one final look to determine whether or not the line "feels right." This is where common sense and past experience with how games are bet enters into the picture.

A round-table discussion among the 4-5 oddsmakers involved in making the line for each sport is then conducted and a consensus line is decided upon by the Odds Director before it is released to the sportsbooks. Of the 4-5 oddsmakers, generally the 2 most respected opinions are weighed more heavily by the Odds Director before he decides on the final line.

Why Sports Betting Lines Change

Once the opening line is released by LVSC, the individual sportsbooks decide if they want to make any adjustments before offering it to the public. Reasons for such adjustments include:

Experts working for the individual books having a strong opinion on the game

Individual books having players who consistently bet with certain tendencies (such as an extreme bias toward favorites or toward a certain popular team like USC)

The purpose of these adjustments, like all line adjustments, is to more equally divide the betting action.

Once betting begins, sportsbooks can adjust the line at any time. In doing so they attempt to make more attractive the team that is getting less action. By moving the line, sportsbooks can influence how the public bets on a particular game.

For example, if the pointspread on a game is 7 and most of the money is coming in on the underdog (taking the +7), sportsbooks will then move the number down to 6 ½ to try and attract money on the favorite.

Moving the line is the oddsmaker's effort to balance betting action, and often times such moves can have a major impact on a bettor’s decision. Oddsmakers can also change the line depending on various event-related factors such as player injuries or weather. Obviously, if the line comes out a week ahead of the event (which is the case in football), there is much that could happen during the week leading up to the event that could affect the line. Oddsmakers have to determine if any changes are necessary and send out an "adjusted line."

“The main objective is that our clients get equal action on both sides,” Seba said. “We’re not trying to pick the team that covers the spread, we’re trying to make it a coin flip, a tough decision (for the bettor). If we’ve done that, we’ve done our job.”

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